Countdown begins for big battle in Gujarat

Countdown has started for the big battle in Gujarat with the Election Commission Wednesday announcing Dec 11 and Dec 16 as dates for the much-awaited assembly polls whose outcome would impact political equations at the national level too.

When Chief Election Commissioner N. Gopalaswami and two election commissioners visited the state Oct 4, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suggested two-phase poll with an interval of five days, while the Congress wanted the poll in a single phase.

In the outgoing house, the BJP has a record 127 seats and the Congress 51.

Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who led the BJP to victory in December 2002, will emerge further stronger if he retains power even as he faces rebellion from a large section of the party.

If he is humbled, Bharat Solanki, the Congress unit chief in Gujarat, will emerge as a leader in his own right.

Elections in the state have been on the whole peaceful in the past. However, there are lurking fears that the tenor of the poll could be different this time.

The BJP had announced that it has readied "poll management armies" for every booth to prevent any attempt at booth capturing.

This statement made the Congress and other political parties make a plea to the Election Commission that the polls should not be held under the supervision of the Gujarat police and that the Commission should summon police forces from outside the state to monitor the booths.

The chief election commissioner in his response stated that the poll panel had conducted elections with external help in the past and will do so in Gujarat too if it was found necessary.

On its part, the BJP national leadership is confident that the party will fare even better this time than in the 2002 polls and is hoping for a landslide win with at least 150 seats.

The Congress, on the other hand, is certain that it will return to power after a gap of 17 years.

Gujarat went out of the Congress fold in 1990 when the coalition between late Chimanbhai Patel as the leader of the Janata Dal and the BJP got the mandate to rule the state. The BJP swept to power on its own stream in 1995.

The Congress sees the tide turning in its favour following reports of desertion of BJP by the Patel and Koli communities, which have been bulwark of the ruling party so far.

In 1998, the BJP won 58 seats in Saurashtra where the two communities are firmly entrenched. In 2002 polls, the number of seats was reduced to 38. The calculation of the Congress party is that BJP will further lose at least 10 to 15 seats.

There is also a favourable sentiment towards the Congress in the tribal belt of the state in central and south Gujarat and also parts of north Gujarat.

The BJP, which edged out the Congress in the 2002 elections in Dahold and Panchmahals districts in the predominantly tribal region after the communal violence, may not find it a cakewalk this time.

No wonder Modi is working overtime to woo the tribal belt with a welfare programme with an outlay of Rs.150 billion.

The BJP last time had support from the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP)-Bajrang Dal as well as the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in addition to its own cadres.

This time around, a section of the VHP-Bajrang Dal combine has reportedly distanced itself from the party questioning Modi's Hindutva credentials. This could have a big impact on the outcome of the poll.

Modi had been banking on the development plank. But the feedback he received from the tours of his cabinet colleagues in districts has forced him to shift focus.

The recent controversy over the Sethusamudram shipping canal project has come in handy for the BJP and Modi is expected to play up the Ram Sethu issue against the Congress.

The Congress will focus on allegations of corruption, abuse of office and deteriorating crime situation in the state.

(IANS)

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